Wednesday, 11 November 2009

Did I call it? Twitter growth moves to stability after July?

Since July Twitter has seen its over "use", according to Alexa, suddenly become more stable, with some measure of time on site and views per user going down. - Site Info from Alexa

This was after an explosive period of growth - Site Info from Alexa

Now it is way to early to call a trend here, but I just want to reinforce my prediction here.  I fear that too many bloggers just mouth off opinions and then don't follow through on what they say.  They cherry pick later events and imagine that they were always right. 

I am not doing this to brag, because most likely I will be proven wrong in time, but I am trying to see how some blogger could rise about the need to make controversy all the time and establish a record of having some idea of what is going on, and in technology what is going on is always about the future.

To this end, that is the greater good of blogosphere, I point to a post I made this July. 

July 20th 2009
I am going to go on a ledge here, but some of my behind on the line and make a prediction based on my evolving concepts of the Internet. I think Twitter has peaked, that is its recent growth will suddenly come to a stop.
Share the Point: Twitter future?

Since July daily reach has grown some, but not at the rate it had been. - Site Info from Alexa

As you can see the ranking trend has seen Twitter flat and actually drop after explosive growth. 

Now I am including these as Alexa maps, which in the future may look funny if Twitter explodes.  But I want to be clear here, I want to more clearly say what I mean and see if I'm right.  We need to work to evolve blogging from random opinions in to something that can be measured.  Bloggers should make predictions and then take a care if they are right or wrong.

In this spirit I will also come forward and make some of my blog mistakes over the years:

  • Bush would never be elected President
  • Cameron would collapse last year
  • Second Life was going to explode in to millions of users by 2010
  • Blackberry would be destroyed by Windows Mobile by 2007
  • Facebook was a flash in the pan.

So I guess despite a small indication I might have been right, you would be pretty silly to listen to me.
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