Share the Point: The war for the Slate Space

Share the Point: The war for the Slate Space

Keeping on the the "war for the slate", which I have been blogging about for some time. Microsoft dropped another bombshell saying it would not pursue development of its project Courier:

According to reports from Microsoft employees, the mysterious and
innovative Microsoft "Courier" tablet, which would have been a rival to the
iPad, is not to be

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/29/microsoft-courier-cancele_n_557493.html

Its hard to underplay just how bad this is for Microsoft. In my opinion it is down right stupid and could only come from Microsoft inability to get the core technology working. With the triumph of the iPhone and iPad it is possible that Mac quality and coolness could be presented in gadgets most people still can afford. This is what happen with the iPod, the device was still cheap enough that one could afford Mac quality. The danger here for Microsoft is that it could just become a Office based solution. Certainly SharePoint and its new Cloud offering will insure that Microsoft position will last for some time, but without consumer usage there is a danger Microsoft core could drift and even fade out over time.




Courier will not be

Apple launches iPad

Share the Point: Search results for iPod

Above is a graphic I drew to show the location of the slate. I seem to have gotten the word wrong, because when Jobs introduced the new Apple tool in this space he called it a Pad. The graphic he showed to introduce the Pad was close to this one, only showing Apple products.

The war for the Slate Space

I drew up a quick picture to try and show how I see the Slate fitting in to the bigger war in the IT space.

Presently the world of information technology is dominated by 2 giants: Google and Microsoft. Google has been long established as the king of the Cloud, but Microsoft Bing is making a try to fight for the title, and frankly Google's monopoly in the Cloud was not good for content producers and Microsoft should have no trouble taking a piece of the Cloud. But only a piece. Google is too big and too good and is to the Cloud what Microsoft is to the desktop.

Google has recently finally left just the Cloud to sell a real thing: the Droid mobile device. This places them competition with the established iPhone. Microsoft owns the desktop and laptop space.

So you have these three players. I don't take the current eReaders seriously and assume they will drop out. The Slate is the real space for devices in the future. Laptop and desktops are too clunky and mobile devices are too small. The Slate computer is the surface for Web 3.0. Slates will combine the excellent power of current desktops with the mobility and Geo sense of iPhones.

The question is who will get there first and then who will hold it. I don't know but these are the things to keep in mind:

1. Google has lots of money and lots of motivation but no established record in making hardware.
2. Apple is best at bringing out these new designs but has a history of falling off. But the iPod held up since 2001 only to be unseated by the iPhone. Maybe apple has found a space it can hold for good? Maybe that place includes the iSlate?
3. Microsoft has a shit record in going small, and the first Microsoft slates presentations were real dull. But it has an established record of taking over computing space.

Taking this in to consideration this is my prediction:

1. Apple opens with iSlate and takes the market.
2. Microsoft fights like crazy to get this space as it sees more and more slates taking the place of laptops. Microsoft has an army of hardware makers in Asia and the US who will throw massive R&D at getting this right. Either Sony or Samsung will finally produce the proper device.
3. Google will produce an Android Slate in 2010 or 2011, but it lack of hardware deployment and its bitter fight for the mobile will limit its penetration.

So my prediction: 2011 winner is the Mac iSlate, 2015 with will be the Windows 9 Slate or Courier 2, I can never make sense out of Microsoft's naming conventions.

The '00s, the Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Major IT technology events of the past decade that will change the future

In no particular order


iPod
Blackberry
Virtual Machines
Multi-Core
PHP
.NET
HTMLX
RSS
micro-Blogging (blogging starting in the 1990s)
Second Life
Google Ad Sense
Google Search
YouTube
Twitter
Facebook
Amazon Web Services
SalesForce.com
Windows XP
Windows 2003 Server
Netbook
iPhone
SharePoint
Google Calendar

And some flops from the last decade

Winodws Vista
Google Docs
Google Wave (I am coming out early on this one)
Office 2007
Yahoo
PopFly
Friendster
UDDI (ever use it)
Semantic Web (I just don't see it taking off)

And major social events which have impacted (for good or bad) IT technology

Soccer Moms (no matter how much damage they are doing to their kids, their need to stay in control 24/7 has been a major boon to technology)
George W. Bush (history will some day right how having a President who did not understand, trust, or care for high technology hurt the US economy and promoted China and India)
The break down of society (well growing isolation has driven more and more people to the web)
Global Warming (need to produce less carbon? have people work from home and communicate via the Internet)
Trade Liberalization (Now you could have all your staff in India you want to be able to have your information workers there connected by the Internet)
Lack of political reform (people are going to YouTube and Twitter almost out of desperation)
Stress (In the end high tech gadgets are really ways of taking you mind off other things)

Windows Mobile

Dell Is Working On Pocket Web Gadget - WSJ.com

The gadget would run on Google Inc.'s Android software, these people said. Two people who saw early prototypes described the device as slightly larger than Apple Inc.'s iPod Touch, which is similar to the iPhone but does not have cellphone capabilities.

Another person who was briefed on the company's plans said Dell may begin selling the device later this year, though this person said the plan could be delayed or scrapped entirely.

The development effort is one of the first experiments by a big-name PC maker in a nascent category of products known as mobile Internet devices, or MIDs,which are designed to fill a perceived gap between mobile phones and laptop computers.

A Dell spokesman declined to comment on any plans for the product category.

Dell may use chips based on designed licensed from ARM Holdings PLC, people familiar with the company's plans said. The Dell spokesman said the company does not currently make any devices that use ARM-based chips.

People familiar with the effort said Dell began developing the device last year, after the company aborted an attempt to compete with Apple in the music-player business. Some of the engineers working on the music player were then assigned to help develop the small mobile device.

Earlier this year, Dell appointed an executive, Ain McKendrick, to be in charge of mobile Internet devices at the company. The Dell spokesman said that as the general manager of mobile Internet devices at Dell, Mr. McKendrick's role involves "looking at future products in play for future consideration."

One person familiar with the effort said Dell has considered selling the product through cellular carriers -- much as Dell, Hewlett-Packard Co. and other computer makers have begun marketing low-end portables called netbooks through cellular providers.

Dell has also been developing several Android-based smart phones that it plans to start selling later this year, according to people briefed on the matter.

Write to Justin Scheck at justin.scheck@wsj.com

Dell Is Working On Pocket Web Gadget - WSJ.com

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